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[post_content] => At long last, The Carson Investment Research team is proud to officially release our 2023 Market and Economic Outlook, aptly titled Outlook ’23: The Edge of Normal. You can download the whitepaper here.
As you are all painfully aware, 2022 wasn’t pretty for investors – it was the first year to ever see both stocks and bonds down 10% or more. Higher-than-expected inflation was the theme of 2022, surging to the highest level since 1981.
Add an aggressive Federal Reserve and an unfortunate war in Ukraine, and the result was a very poor year for investors and growing uncertainty for the U.S. and global economies. A bleak year, no doubt, but where do we go from here? We in the Carson Research team believe there are many potential reasons to be optimistic about the year ahead.
For example, Inflation already started to pull back in the second half of 2022, and 2023 may actually be disinflationary, with several factors that drove inflation higher last year reversing this year.
This could allow the Fed to slow down on the aggressive policy stance, and although it won’t be easy, we think there’s an above-average chance we can avoid a recession in 2023. Much like you don’t drive looking out of the rearview mirror, to look backward to predict what could be next isn’t wise. Housing and manufacturing could be headed to recessions, but the consumer remains the most important and largest part of the economy, and they are still very healthy.
Just because 2022 was a poor year for stocks and bonds doesn’t mean the same will be true for 2023 (past performance isn’t indicative of future results). Stocks and bonds could bounce back nicely, with the potential for stocks to lead the way higher and for bonds to begin meaningfully contributing to investors’ portfolios again.
We expect stocks to produce a total return of between 12% to 15% in 2023. We also expect a more normal year for bonds, with most of the return coming from yield. Our expectation is that the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index may produce a total return between 4% to 5% in 2023.
You can read the full Outlook ’23: The Edge of Normal here. We hope you find it useful! If you’d like to discuss the report further, or talk about what 2023 might mean for your finances, please reach out.
Schedule a conversation.
The views stated in this article, are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC or CWM, LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change with notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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[post_content] => Mike Valenti, CPA, CFP®, Director of Tax Planning
Tom Fridrich, JD, CLU, ChFC®, Senior Wealth Planner
It’s January, so it’s officially tax season! One of the most common client questions heard by tax preparers is, “So, what do you need from me?” The short answer to that question is often, “Everything.”
But that isn’t helpful, nor is it entirely true. Let’s dig into what your tax preparer needs from you to prepare your tax return efficiently and in a timely manner.
Communication Is Key
Your preparer should tell you when to expect the engagement letters, organizers, etc., and when they need all the information by to finalize or extend the return before the deadline. Adhering to their timeline and providing documents in the instructed manner (such as through a client portal or a secure drop box) will reduce any back and forth and minimize the chance that your preparer misses something you already provided.
If you’re asked to complete a questionnaire or organizer, there’s a reason why. Those two documents cover most, if not all, of what you will need to provide for your return to be complete and accurate.
Most of life’s major events have a tax impact, so it’s important to keep your preparer apprised. Marriage, divorce, births/adoptions, deaths, home purchases and sales, new business ventures and side hustles, and inheritances are a few examples of events that have tax consequences.
Documentation Needed for Your Tax Return
Any government-issued forms, such as W-2s, 1099s, 1098s, and K-1s, you receive are all reported to the IRS. If your return is missing information reported on one of these forms, the IRS and state taxing authorities will reconcile your return and issue notice adjusting the return to match what was reported. This can result in additional tax owed, plus penalties and interest.
Other information, such as business income and expenses, medical expenses, charitable contributions, and some tax strategies, is not reported to the IRS and sufficient records must be maintained.
Examples of income reported to the IRS:
401(k) or 403(b) accounts
The majority of workplaces offer these employer-sponsored accounts, called a 401(k) at a private, non-profit company and a 403(b) at a nonprofit or government agency. Typically, the account contribution will come directly from your paycheck, which makes them a convenient way to save. Many companies even offer a match, usually a percentage of your contribution, which means you're making money even before realizing any market return. That's why I recommend saving at least up to the “match" amount, even if you decide to focus the rest of your savings on different vehicles. While there are limits to how much you can contribute, the IRS has bumped them up for 2023.Traditional IRAs
Contributions to a traditional IRA may be tax-deductible in the year they were made, depending on your income and whether your employer offers an account like a 401(k). They will then be taxed at your marginal tax rate when you make withdrawals. IRAs are appealing because of the wide number of investment options and can be a good add-on to other savings strategies.529 Plans
These plans are a popular place to build college savings that will grow tax-deferred as long as the funds are used for qualified distributions for approved educational expenses. With some plans you may also qualify for a state tax deduction. However, only contribute to a 529 plan if you're also simultaneously saving for retirement — after all, you can borrow for school but not for retirement. One great way to fund 529 plans is to ask relatives to contribute. For affluent grandparents, in particular, it can be a good way to draw down their estate as they can put in up to $17,000 per year tax-free as part of the gift tax exemption. They can even contribute five years at once in a lump sum and spread it over five years for tax purposes.Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs)
Many employers offer FSAs, which allow you to contribute pre-tax money that can then be used for out-of-pocket healthcare costs your insurance doesn't cover. Be aware that most plans, however, have a stipulation that you use it by the end of the year or lose it, so you don't want to overfund the account. But if you know your child will be getting orthodontic treatment or you have planned for a procedure, it can be a good way to cover those expenses at a tax savings.Life Insurance
While life insurance isn't an investment choice that suits everyone's needs, it's another option to consider. Universal, variable and whole life policies build cash value while also providing for your loved ones in the event of a tragedy. The death benefit is typically tax free and the value of your account grows tax free.Roth IRA
With a Roth IRA, you contribute after-tax dollars and then won't have to pay any taxes when you eventually withdraw that money. These accounts are particularly attractive if you think you might be in a higher tax bracket when you retire. Of course, none of us has a crystal ball to know how tax rates might eventually fluctuate, but we do know they are currently historically low so this may be a chance to lock in tax savings before laws change. We often suggest people fill up these tax-exempt assets first for that reason. However, there are income limits to a Roth IRA so not everyone qualifies. There is a workaround: You can convert funds from your traditional IRA to a Roth IRA so you'll pay the tax now. That can be a wise strategy if you are in a lower tax bracket right now and want to eventually tap these funds tax-free and even pass on wealth to your heirs without saddling them with a tax bill. Now might be the time if your income has dropped significantly or your business has a loss for the year, but a financial advisor can help you make an informed decision.Roth 401(k)
If your employer offers a Roth 401(k), which some do in addition to a 401(k), it can be a great way to save for retirement in a way that may be beneficial when it's time to take your withdrawals. There are no income limits on a Roth 401(k) so it can be a good complement to a traditional retirement savings plan.Health Savings Account (HSA)
HSAs are one of my favorite ways to manage your taxes because they offer three types of tax breaks—a tax deduction when you contribute, tax-free growth and tax-free distribution. Not everyone can take advantage of them, though; HSAs are only offered as a supplement to a high-deductible health plan (HDHP). HSA money is used for qualified medical expenses the health plan doesn't cover. Unlike a FSA, it doesn't have to be used on a certain timeframe, and you can keep it even if you change jobs. I find that people routinely overlook the power of these accounts and the tax benefits you'll enjoy in retirement. Even if you have expenses, you could use it for, let your money continue to grow if you can cash flow those smaller needs, like glasses or a routine doctor's visit, and your HSA essentially becomes another Roth IRA-type plan where you won't owe taxes as you draw it down. There's another benefit many people are unaware of. If you decide to pay for medical expenses out of pocket today, and later wish you had used your HSA funds, you can reimburse yourself for those expenses at any point in time if you keep your receipts. Just be diligent about record keeping.
For example, Inflation already started to pull back in the second half of 2022, and 2023 may actually be disinflationary, with several factors that drove inflation higher last year reversing this year.
This could allow the Fed to slow down on the aggressive policy stance, and although it won’t be easy, we think there’s an above-average chance we can avoid a recession in 2023. Much like you don’t drive looking out of the rearview mirror, to look backward to predict what could be next isn’t wise. Housing and manufacturing could be headed to recessions, but the consumer remains the most important and largest part of the economy, and they are still very healthy.
Just because 2022 was a poor year for stocks and bonds doesn’t mean the same will be true for 2023 (past performance isn’t indicative of future results). Stocks and bonds could bounce back nicely, with the potential for stocks to lead the way higher and for bonds to begin meaningfully contributing to investors’ portfolios again.
We expect stocks to produce a total return of between 12% to 15% in 2023. We also expect a more normal year for bonds, with most of the return coming from yield. Our expectation is that the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index may produce a total return between 4% to 5% in 2023.
You can read the full Outlook ’23: The Edge of Normal here. We hope you find it useful! If you’d like to discuss the report further, or talk about what 2023 might mean for your finances, please reach out.
Schedule a conversation.
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[post_content] => After multiple attempts at retirement legislation in 2022, the SECURE 2.0 Act has passed, with arguably more impactful reform than its predecessor, the SECURE Act of 2019.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Get ready to tackle 2023 with this month-by-month financial task list. We've also included important dates so you won't miss key deadlines.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Change happens. And whether we carefully plan for these changes, or we are taken by surprise by change, it's how we react to those changes that help dictate if they will ultimately be to our advantage. Whether it's a sudden inheritance, or a divorce settlement that is higher than anticipated, deciding what to do with an unexpected sum of money should happen after emotions have been processed.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Have questions about how to incorporate your employee benefits into your financial plan? Talk to your financial advisor today or request an initial meeting with one of our highly qualified fiduciary advisors.
Download the checklist today to get started.
[post_title] => Commonly Overlooked Employee Benefits
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[post_content] => Determining what age to begin claiming your Social Security benefit can be a big decision. Do you claim early at age 62? Take it at your full retirement age? Or delay until age 70? There are a wide variety of factors that can go into your final decision, and you should always consult with a qualified professional first. We put together a few charts to help you start that conversation.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_date] => 2023-01-30 11:11:29
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[post_content] => Last week the stock market rally continued, with various sectors showing renewed strength. This time a year ago, defensive areas, such as utilities, consumer staples, and health care, were leading. That was a warning sign, and it sure turned out something was wrong. Today small-caps, cyclicals, industrials, and technology are leading. These are more risk-on areas and their strong performance is another sign of underlying health.
We wouldn’t suggest blindly investing based on January’s performance, but the returns provide another clue that conditions have changed and higher stock prices in 2023 could be quite likely.
More Strong Economic Data
The latest GDP growth numbers for the fourth quarter of 2022 came in at 2.9% quarter-over-quarter (annualized rate), which was higher than expectations for a 2.6% reading. This is only slightly below the third quarter growth rate of 3.2%. The first two quarters of last year saw negative growth, so this is a nice bounce back.
Over the full year, GDP growth was up just 1% compared to the end of 2021. But this hides the fact that economic growth picked up in the second half of 2022. However, the first-half slowdown leaves the economy about 2.5% below its pre-pandemic trend.
The big picture: The economy is more than 5% higher than it was at the end of 2019, which shows how strong the recovery has been despite the early slowdown in 2022. The employment data corroborate this as well.
Details Matter
GDP is measured as:
GDP = Consumption (68%) + Investment (18%) + Government Spending (17%) + Net Exports (-3%)
Note that net exports are exports minus imports, and since the U.S. imports more than it exports, net exports tend to be a drag.
The table below shows how the various components contributed to GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters. Consumption contributed close to the same amount in both quarters. But in the third quarter the other big driver of GDP growth was net exports, whereas in the fourth quarter it was “change in private inventories.” These are the two most volatile elements of GDP, which is why it helps to look under the hood.
The details also help us to consider how the markets and economy will behave in 2023. For that let’s start with the most important category — consumption, which makes up just under 70% of the economy.
Consumption Stays Solid, Even as Services Normalize
Consumption barely slowed from the third quarter, but there were important differences. Services consumption eased, rising 2.6% in the fourth quarter compared to 3.7% in the third. But that 2.6% pace is well above the 2015-2019 average of 1.9%.
The good news is goods spending picked up in the fourth quarter and offset some of the services slowdown. This was almost entirely due to increased auto sales, gas, and grocery purchases — the latter two thanks to lower prices. This is important because we believe this trend will continue into early 2023, especially with auto sales and production picking up. Further good news: Consumers have more money in their pockets due to falling inflation, which will be a tailwind for consumption.
Housing Slowed, Thanks to the Fed
The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes had barely any impact on consumption last year. They did have an impact on investment, specifically residential investment, i.e., housing. Higher interest rates led to higher mortgage rates, and that led to a crash in housing activity. Housing pulled economic growth down by about 1.3-1.4 percentage points in the third and fourth quarters. Across 2022, residential investment fell 11%, which is the largest drop since 2009 when it fell 22%.
The good news is housing data appear less bad. In fact, mortgage activity has even picked up recently with rates pulling back from peak levels. So, there is sound reason to think housing will be less of a drag in 2023.
Nonresidential investment also slowed, which is concerning because it indicates businesses are investing less. However, it turns out the pullback in the fourth quarter was due to businesses spending less on communications equipment, which may simply be a reversal of spending that occurred after the pandemic hit when employees had to shift to their homes.
Government Spending No Longer a Drag
Investors forget that government spending makes up about 17% of the economy, and it matters. Over the last two quarters, government spending has picked up, reversing the drag from the prior five quarters. This has helped offset some of the pullback in private investment. It also is in sharp contrast to what happened after the 2008-2009 recession, when government spending was slashed and remained a drag on GDP growth all the way through 2014.
Government spending should continue to add to GDP growth in 2023. Congress passed some big spending bills over the past year and half: a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, and a $1.7 trillion government budget, which increased spending significantly. The money will really start to flow into the economy in 2023.
Still No Sign of a Recession
As we wrote in our recently released 2023 outlook, we don’t expect a recession in 2023, and the latest data corroborate that story.
Our reasoning is simple: Inflation is slowing, and if employment and incomes hold up (as they seem to be doing), real incomes will rise. Considering goods consumption is likely to recover on the back of vehicle purchases, we’re expecting consumption to remain solid.
Beyond that, housing should be less of a drag in 2023, especially as the Fed eases rate hikes, which looks likely to happen. So, the peak negative impact of aggressive rate hikes may be behind us.
Non-residential investment, especially in structures and equipment, may remain weak. However, recovering auto production, and even aircraft orders, should help U.S. manufacturing. That will be enhanced as the global economy starts to strengthen later in 2023, which should also help exports.
GDP growth data may be volatile due to unpredictable inventories and net exports, as we saw in 2022. But the underlying message is there still is no sign of a recession.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Compliance Case # 01640562
[post_title] => Market Commentary: As Goes January, So Goes the Year
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[post_date] => 2023-01-23 10:25:42
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[post_content] => Stocks sold off early in the week on disappointing retail sales and industrial production numbers, but they staged a nice bounce on Friday to close out the week. Although some recent data has been disappointing, inflation data continues to show fast improvement, with producer-level inflation coming in lower than expected last week. Additionally, prices-paid components of regional surveys and supply chain data continues to quickly improve. All this matters, as lower inflation opens the door for the Fed to end its aggressive rate-hiking regime (more on this below).
Good News for Rental Inflation
The Carson Investment Research Team just released its 2023 outlook, which we titled “The Edge of Normal.” The big theme for 2022 was higher-than-expected inflation, which surged to the highest level seen since 1981. This resulted in the Federal Reserve embarking on its most aggressive rate-hike cycle in 40 years, which led to an ugly 2022 for investors, with stocks and bonds falling more than 10%.
However, we are optimistic about 2023, mostly because we believe this year may be disinflationary, with several factors that drove inflation higher last year reversing. Amongst the three major drivers of lower inflation in 2023:
On a year-over-year basis, market rents peaked at 18% at the end of December 2021. The pace was down to under 4% as of last month. Now, as we have discussed in the past, official shelter inflation data is not going to capture this deceleration for another 8-10 months (see here and here). That is because private data reviews only market rents as related to new leases. But renters do not renew their leases every month. So official data considers both existing and new leases, which means there is a lag. On top of that, official data also averages the numbers over several months to smooth them out.
But there is even better news on the horizon for shelter inflation.
More Rental Supply is Coming
The housing data looks awful, thanks to activity cratering amid the surge in mortgage rates. However, this has mostly been concentrated in the single-family housing segment. Dynamics within the multi-family sector have been markedly different.
Multi-family units under construction are well outpacing completions and are currently at their highest level since 1973. Typically, construction outpacing completions would be a sign of over-building, as in the mid-2000s amid the housing bubble. This time around, it is due to supply-chain issues and labor shortages. But these are improving.
That means a lot more rental units will come onto the market, perhaps by late 2023 and early 2024. We believe that will put even more downward pressure on rental prices.
Of course, all of this is going to take a while to show up in the official data, but it further strengthens our view that disinflation is coming, with the largest component of the CPI basket, i.e., shelter, driving that downtrend in late 2023 and even into 2024.
Critically, the timing will also likely coincide with a period when the impact of lower goods prices begins to wear off (barring any unexpected shocks). And with shelter inflation on the decline, the Fed will be less likely to argue that disinflationary trends are “transitory.”
As a result, the Fed could start to cut rates in response, although this is unlikely until the very end of 2023, if not early 2024 — unless the economy plunges into recession. But that is not our base case currently, for all the reasons we discuss in our outlook.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Sonu Varghese and Ryan Detrick are non-registered associates of Cetera Advisor Networks.
Compliance Case # 01632615
[post_title] => Market Commentary: New Market Highs are Possible in 2023
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[post_content] => After one of the worst years ever for investors in 2022, we are quite happy to report that 2023 is off to a much better start. The S&P 500 is already up more than 4% for the year and flirting with the round number of 4,000. Optimism that the economy can avoid a recession (more below) and clear signs that inflation has peaked, thus forcing the Fed’s hand on continued interest rate hikes, have led to a great first half of the first month of the year.
Why is Everyone Predicting a Recession?
Most outlooks are forecasting a recession in 2023. In contrast, we on the Carson Investment Research Team believe the economy can avoid a recession this year.
The recession calls are all predictions and clearly not reflections of where the economy is right now. The NBER’s preferred list of economic indicators, which is used to determine a recession, shows every single indicator grew over the past three months and year-to-date (2022). In fact, four out of the six indicators have exceeded their pre-pandemic growth rates over the past three months (comparing the yellow bars against the dark blue bars).
Of course, this is 2022 data and the question is what will happen in 2023. So far this year, inflation has fallen, and with relatively strong wage growth that means higher real incomes. Lower gas prices, lower energy prices (utilities), and lower food prices mean consumers will have more money in their pockets. Just as higher inflation is effectively a tax on income, falling prices are akin to a tax cut. And unless households choose to save this excess income, consumption will stay up.
In addition, 38 states have significant tax changes that took effect Jan. 1. As the Tax Foundation notes, most represent net tax reductions, which are the result of a wave of tax cuts over the past two years as state revenues surged and governors/legislatures looked to ease the impact of higher prices on residents.
Also, Social Security recipients are slated to receive a cost-of-living adjustment of 8.7% to their incomes in 2023, a function of last year’s high inflation but coming just as inflation starts to pull back. Seniors will get another break from Medicare premiums, which are slated to fall this year.
These are all tailwinds for consumption, which makes up 70% of the economy.
So, Why the Recession Calls?
In short, forecasters are expecting the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes of 2022 to hit the economy in mid-2023 and beyond. The idea is that monetary policy impacts the economy with “long and variable lags,” as Milton Friedman said. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have cited the uncertainty around the lagged impact of their rate hikes as a reason for stepping down the pace in December. They want to wait to see the impact of the 425 bps of rate hikes they implemented last year.
However, the reality is monetary policy impacts the economy through financial conditions. Higher interest rates can crimp household demand for mortgages, and tighter credit conditions can curb business spending, including hiring, capital expenditures, and mergers and acquisitions.
In fact, because of the Fed’s forward guidance and other commentary (including leaks to the press), financial conditions can tighten well in advance of actual rate hikes, as investors anticipate future Fed actions. The chart below illustrates this point. Across 2022, financial conditions tightened well ahead of the Fed’s rate hikes.
This means financial conditions can impact the economy sooner than most people expect. The steep falloff in housing activity is a good example of how tighter financial conditions can be felt almost immediately. Residential investment has been a significant drag on GDP growth since the second quarter of 2022, which is when financial conditions started to really tighten in anticipation of the Fed’s aggressive turn. On an annualized basis, residential investment fell 18% in the second quarter of 2022 and 27% in the third.
So, we may be beyond peak negative impact of rate hikes on the economy. Most of the tightening in financial conditions occurred during the first three quarters of 2022. In fact, financial conditions have eased since October (coinciding with a stock market rally). That is even more positive for economic growth, as the drag from tight financial conditions declines.
Good News on the Inflation Front
We now have a trend! Headline inflation fell 0.1% in December, the slowest pace since May 2020. Inflation has now decelerated to 6.5% year-over-year, quite a pullback from the 9.1% level six months ago.
As the chart shows, the big driver has been falling energy prices. In fact, gas prices at the pump fell 9.4% in December and are 1.5% lower than a year ago. Even better news is inflation is falling more broadly now.
The good news from the report is hourly wages rose less than expected. Hourly wages were up only 0.3%, compared with a huge initial 0.6% jump the previous month. The other bit of good news is November’s initial 0.6% rise was revised down to 0.4%. This matters because the Fed needs to see signs that wage growth is slowing, which are finally appearing. Is there farther to go? Or course. But this lowered trend is quite welcome.
The jobs report had a Goldilocks feel to it. Just like the fairytale, the data was not too hot nor too cold. The economy creating more than 200,000 jobs but hourly wages slowing down is a pretty good combo at this stage of the cycle.
A Bad December
Many market watchers have said the stock market’s poor performance in December could be a warning sign. Historically, the last month of the year is quite strong for stocks. But as with much of last year, that wasn’t the case in 2022. In the end, the S&P 500 fell 5.9%, marking one of the worst Decembers ever and the worst since 2018. So, how worried should investors be?
It turns out that very poor final months of the year haven’t typically been the warning signs we might expect. December 2018 for instance was the worst December ever for stocks, and they went on to gain nearly 30% in 2019. In fact, the last four times the S&P 500 fell 4% or more in December, the following years were up three times for gains of 38%, 26%, and 29%. There are many worries out there, but a big drop in December apparently shouldn’t be one of them.
Santa Came to Town
Let’s end on some good news.
Santa Claus did come to town, as the seven days that encompass the well-known Santa Claus rally were indeed higher. Although many people think the Santa Claus rally takes place during the whole month of December, in reality it is the final five days of the year and first two days of the new year. These seven days sported a gain of 0.8%, the seventh consecutive year stocks were higher during this historically strong period.
These seven days are higher about 80% of the time, and no period is more likely to be positive. At Carson, we take note when the rally does not occur as this typically is a warning sign, such as it was in 2000 and 2008.
The markets present many worries, but the large drop in December and the Santa Claus rally should not be among them.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Compliance Case # 01616683
[post_title] => Market Commentary: The Goldilocks Jobs Report
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[post_content] => The S&P 500 lost 19.4% in 2022, marking the worst year since 2008 and the fourth worst since World War II (behind 1974, 2002, and 2008). The big loser was the NASDAQ, which fell more than 30% thanks to large-cap tech and growth names lagging the overall market significantly. On the flipside, the Dow was down a relatively low 9%, as energy, health care, and staples performed much better. If anything, 2022 reminded investors not to chase leaders or hyped-up products, as money flows to different groups each year and going all in on leading stocks can lead to disappointing results.
Will inflation stay high forever?
Despite investors’ concerns, the economy is expected to remain strong in the coming year due to easing inflation and rising incomes. Real personal consumption and real personal incomes have both increased in recent months. Consumption has been supported by rebounding vehicle sales, and rising incomes have provided consumers more disposable income.
The Federal Reserve has also acknowledged the deceleration in rent prices and used cars, which make up a significant portion of the core inflation basket. However, the Fed remains concerned about services inflation, particularly in categories such as medical care, insurance, and education, which make up about half of core inflation. This is due to the belief that these costs will ultimately depend on the labor market and wage growth. While wage growth has accelerated in recent months, the Fed remains concerned about its potential impact on inflation and the risk of overtightening and pushing the economy into a recession. The base case is that the economy is strong enough to handle the aggressive rate hikes for now, with the Fed expected to slow the pace of rate increases, which will allow more time for inflation to ease.
Why would I want to hold bonds?
Bonds are coming off their worst year ever (as measured by the U.S. Aggregate bond fund), having fallen approximately 13%. To put things in perspective, the previous worst year ever was a 3% loss in 1994. Adding insult to injury, bonds also fell two years in a row for the first time ever.
Why did bonds do so poorly? Bonds don’t respond well to inflation and higher rates, especially when they come as a big surprise. In September 2021, the Fed was only looking for one 25 basis point hike (0.25%) in all of 2022, so its unexpectedly aggressive rate-hike policy greatly hurt bonds.
The good news is higher inflation and potential future rate hikes are now expected. Should inflation fall more in 2023 than anticipated, the Fed might not be as hawkish (aggressive) as many expect. Bonds could gain 3-5% in such a scenario or return to more normal returns.
Bonds zig when stocks zag, historically. Some of the worst years for stocks were some of the best for bonds. In 2002 and 2008, stocks fell more than 20% but Treasury bonds gained double digits. We believe 2022 was an anomaly and expect this more normal pattern to return.
However, although bonds may offer gains this year, we are overweight stocks relative to bonds and expect stocks to perform better.
Lastly, we’ll leave you with this thought. Only twice in the past 50 years — 1994 and 2018 — did both stocks and bonds fall during the same year, according to data from The New York University. 2022 was the third time. But during the following years, stocks gained 34% (1995) and 29% (2019). It’s a small sample size and different environments, no doubt, but it’s a fact worth knowing.
Isn’t a recession a near certainty?
One of the biggest surprises of 2022 has to be the strength of the consumer. The consumer makes up close to 70% of the economy, so it’s hard to have a recession with a strong consumer.
We expect consumption will continue to be strong in the coming year due to a combination of easing inflation and rising incomes. This is supported by the fact that real personal consumption, which adjusts for price changes, has been increasing and is being driven by strong service consumption. Real personal incomes, which also adjust for price changes, have also increased over the past five months. This is allowing consumers to have more disposable income, and they are taking advantage of it. The fact that consumption makes up a significant portion of the economy and that consumers still have excess savings from the pandemic also suggest the economy is not close to a recession.
What could be the biggest surprise in 2023?
The truth is a lot of investors are hurt and scared. This makes sense after one of the worst years ever for well-diversified portfolios. Nearly everyone is expecting another rough year and particularly a weak first half.
One of the biggest surprises could be that we finally start to get some good news. Should inflation come back quickly, as we expect, the Fed may stop its historically aggressive hiking stance. Other potential positives are a weaker U.S. dollar, which helps multi-national companies’ profits, China reopening to stimulate the global economy, a breakthrough in the Ukrainian war, or continued supply chain improvements. All those factors were headwinds in 2022 and contributed significantly to the poor performance of stocks and bonds. Potential worries are always out there, and we aren’t ignoring them, but investors need to know how rare 2022 was and should not necessarily expect it to happen again.
We’ll leave with this chart. It turns out that the second year of a new president’s term is quite weak historically for stocks, which sure played out in 2022. But the third year of a new president’s term is historically the best scenario for stocks, as the S&P 500 is up more than 20% on average. We wouldn’t give up all hope just yet on 2023, as the stage could be set for much better times.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Compliance Case # 01610327
[post_title] => Market Commentary: Will stocks ever bounce back?
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[post_date] => 2023-01-30 11:11:29
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[post_content] => Last week the stock market rally continued, with various sectors showing renewed strength. This time a year ago, defensive areas, such as utilities, consumer staples, and health care, were leading. That was a warning sign, and it sure turned out something was wrong. Today small-caps, cyclicals, industrials, and technology are leading. These are more risk-on areas and their strong performance is another sign of underlying health.
We wouldn’t suggest blindly investing based on January’s performance, but the returns provide another clue that conditions have changed and higher stock prices in 2023 could be quite likely.
More Strong Economic Data
The latest GDP growth numbers for the fourth quarter of 2022 came in at 2.9% quarter-over-quarter (annualized rate), which was higher than expectations for a 2.6% reading. This is only slightly below the third quarter growth rate of 3.2%. The first two quarters of last year saw negative growth, so this is a nice bounce back.
Over the full year, GDP growth was up just 1% compared to the end of 2021. But this hides the fact that economic growth picked up in the second half of 2022. However, the first-half slowdown leaves the economy about 2.5% below its pre-pandemic trend.
The big picture: The economy is more than 5% higher than it was at the end of 2019, which shows how strong the recovery has been despite the early slowdown in 2022. The employment data corroborate this as well.
Details Matter
GDP is measured as:
GDP = Consumption (68%) + Investment (18%) + Government Spending (17%) + Net Exports (-3%)
Note that net exports are exports minus imports, and since the U.S. imports more than it exports, net exports tend to be a drag.
The table below shows how the various components contributed to GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters. Consumption contributed close to the same amount in both quarters. But in the third quarter the other big driver of GDP growth was net exports, whereas in the fourth quarter it was “change in private inventories.” These are the two most volatile elements of GDP, which is why it helps to look under the hood.
The details also help us to consider how the markets and economy will behave in 2023. For that let’s start with the most important category — consumption, which makes up just under 70% of the economy.
Consumption Stays Solid, Even as Services Normalize
Consumption barely slowed from the third quarter, but there were important differences. Services consumption eased, rising 2.6% in the fourth quarter compared to 3.7% in the third. But that 2.6% pace is well above the 2015-2019 average of 1.9%.
The good news is goods spending picked up in the fourth quarter and offset some of the services slowdown. This was almost entirely due to increased auto sales, gas, and grocery purchases — the latter two thanks to lower prices. This is important because we believe this trend will continue into early 2023, especially with auto sales and production picking up. Further good news: Consumers have more money in their pockets due to falling inflation, which will be a tailwind for consumption.
Housing Slowed, Thanks to the Fed
The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes had barely any impact on consumption last year. They did have an impact on investment, specifically residential investment, i.e., housing. Higher interest rates led to higher mortgage rates, and that led to a crash in housing activity. Housing pulled economic growth down by about 1.3-1.4 percentage points in the third and fourth quarters. Across 2022, residential investment fell 11%, which is the largest drop since 2009 when it fell 22%.
The good news is housing data appear less bad. In fact, mortgage activity has even picked up recently with rates pulling back from peak levels. So, there is sound reason to think housing will be less of a drag in 2023.
Nonresidential investment also slowed, which is concerning because it indicates businesses are investing less. However, it turns out the pullback in the fourth quarter was due to businesses spending less on communications equipment, which may simply be a reversal of spending that occurred after the pandemic hit when employees had to shift to their homes.
Government Spending No Longer a Drag
Investors forget that government spending makes up about 17% of the economy, and it matters. Over the last two quarters, government spending has picked up, reversing the drag from the prior five quarters. This has helped offset some of the pullback in private investment. It also is in sharp contrast to what happened after the 2008-2009 recession, when government spending was slashed and remained a drag on GDP growth all the way through 2014.
Government spending should continue to add to GDP growth in 2023. Congress passed some big spending bills over the past year and half: a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, and a $1.7 trillion government budget, which increased spending significantly. The money will really start to flow into the economy in 2023.
Still No Sign of a Recession
As we wrote in our recently released 2023 outlook, we don’t expect a recession in 2023, and the latest data corroborate that story.
Our reasoning is simple: Inflation is slowing, and if employment and incomes hold up (as they seem to be doing), real incomes will rise. Considering goods consumption is likely to recover on the back of vehicle purchases, we’re expecting consumption to remain solid.
Beyond that, housing should be less of a drag in 2023, especially as the Fed eases rate hikes, which looks likely to happen. So, the peak negative impact of aggressive rate hikes may be behind us.
Non-residential investment, especially in structures and equipment, may remain weak. However, recovering auto production, and even aircraft orders, should help U.S. manufacturing. That will be enhanced as the global economy starts to strengthen later in 2023, which should also help exports.
GDP growth data may be volatile due to unpredictable inventories and net exports, as we saw in 2022. But the underlying message is there still is no sign of a recession.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Compliance Case # 01640562
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[post_content] => After a year riddled with market volatility, it’s a good idea to get some market outlook insights from a respected thought leader, Carson Group’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
Watch Detrick’s Carson's 2023 Market Outlook webinar, now available on-demand.
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[post_content] => Carson Partners’ Ryan Detrick shares key events we saw in the past quarter and how we think they’ll affect markets in 2023. Contact us to speak with a financial advisor.
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[post_content] => The SECURE Act brought big changes to planning for retirement when it was signed into law in 2019. Now, its sequel – dubbed SECURE Act 2.0 – has just passed as part of the 2023 budget.
[post_title] => How SECURE Act 2.0 Shifts the Retirement Planning Landscape
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[post_content] => Nobody knows with complete certainty what 2023 will bring for your finances, but we have some educated guesses. Learn about how 2022 events might impact your 2023 in our on-demand webinar A Look Ahead to 2023 with Carson’s Senior Wealth Planner Kevin Oleszewski CFP®, MST, EA.
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[post_content] => You probably have questions on how the markets will be affected by the midterm elections. Will you feel policy changes in your wallet?
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[post_content] => By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions
Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion for photography and spending time with her son and her grandkids.
The pandemic changed everything. Her son contracted COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic. His health deteriorated quickly and he died at only 35 years old. He didn’t have life insurance. A gig worker without a 401(k), he had very minimal retirement savings.
Rose’s grandchildren, ages 2 and 6, joined the more than 140,000 U.S. children under the age of 18 who lost their primary or secondary caregiver due to the pandemic from April 2020 through June 2021. That’s approximately one out of every 450 children under age 18 in the United States.
Rose’s ex-daughter-in-law battles drug addiction and had lost custody of the kids during the divorce, so Rose became the children’s primary caregiver. She quickly discovered that caring for young children as an older adult is more physically challenging than when she raised her son, so she made the difficult decision to leave her part-time job to have the energy to care for her active grandchildren. She wants to do everything for these kids who have lost so much — but it puts her financial security at risk.
Sadly, she is far from alone.
Read the full article
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[post_content] => By: Erin Wood, CFP®, CRPC®, FBS®, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning, Carson Group
Laura and Caroline are in their late 50s. Friends since meeting at a playgroup for their toddlers, both were in long-term, seemingly happy marriages. Laura married her high school sweetheart right after they graduated from college and worked as an RN while her husband attended medical school. When their first child was born, Laura decided to become a stay-at-home parent. She just celebrated sending her last child off to college and was looking forward to enjoying an empty nest with her husband.
Already established in her career as an accountant for a large insurance firm, Caroline married a bit later, at 33. Today, she’s a financial controller for the same firm. Her spouse owns his own landscaping business. Caroline is the high-wage earner in the family.
Unfortunately, both women are now surprised to be facing a “gray” divorce: a divorce involving couples in their 50s or older. Each will need to make some tough choices as they deal with the emotional devastation of unraveling a long-term marriage. Although my focus as a financial planner is to help my clients find their financial footing during and after divorce, I also encourage clients to build a strong network of family and friends as well as a therapist or clergy person to offer critical emotional support during this time.
Read full article on Kiplinger.com
[post_title] => Emerging Financially Healthy After a Gray Divorce
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If you didn’t already know, scam lenders and loans are on the rise, fueled by the economic fall-out of the Covid-19 crisis. Bad lenders have been around for a long time, however, and though the tactics they employ may evolve over time, with a keen eye and some common sense, you should still be able to spot them pretty easily. The proliferation in recent years of online lenders has also created a renewed emphasis on researching lenders’ online presence and any complaints. Here are some key red flags and how to spot them.
Where to Start
If you’re being offered a loan by a company you haven’t already vetted thoroughly, the easiest place to start doing so is online. A simple search query should generate enough to get you started - take a look at their online footprint, any associated customer reviews, or signs of negative news stories. Then, it’s reasonable to follow-up with a lender search by name with both the Better Business Bureau (BBB) and the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau(CFPB). The BBB can provide a plethora of information, including customer reviews and complaints, and an A-to-F letter grade rating of a lender’s reputation and business dealings.
Full Article on CNBC
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https://www.schlipmanwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2020/01/SCHLIPMAN-WEALTH-LIVE-AD-1-27-20.mp3
[post_title] => Radio Segment
[post_excerpt] => Join us for the latest episode of Mark's bi-monthly radio show, during which he and a guest discuss a financial topic.
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[post_date] => 2020-01-28 16:38:21
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[post_content] => By Jamie Hopkins
Roth conversions can be a powerful tax and retirement planning technique. The idea behind most Roth conversions is to take money from an IRA and convert it to a Roth IRA. Essentially, you’re paying taxes today instead of paying taxes in the future.
The Tax Cut and Jobs Act lowered taxes for many Americans and with the SECURE Act Roth IRAs became even more powerful as an estate planning vehicle to minimize taxes, so it’s a convenient time to take advantage of Roth conversions. However, Roth conversions can come with some issues. Before you engage in one, be aware of these common problems as it can be hard to undo the transaction.
Conversions After 72
IRAs and Roth IRAs are both retirement accounts. It’s easy to assume Roth Conversions are best suited for retirement, too. However, waiting too long to do conversions can actually make the entire process more challenging.
If you own an IRA, it’s subject to required minimum distribution rules once you turn 72, as long as you had not already reached age 70.5 by the end of 2019. The government wants you to start withdrawing money from your IRA each year and pay taxes on the tax-deferred money. However, Roth IRAs aren’t subject to RMDs at age 72.
If you don’t need the money from your RMD to support your retirement spending, you might think, “I should convert this to a Roth IRA so it can stay in a tax-deferred account longer.” Unfortunately, that won’t work. You can’t roll over or convert RMDs for a given year. So, if you owe a RMD in 2020, you need to take it and you cannot convert it to a Roth IRA.
Despite the fact you can’t convert an RMD, it doesn’t mean you can’t do Roth conversions after age 72. However, you need to make sure you get your RMD out before you do a conversion. Your first distributions from an IRA after 72 will be treated as RMD money first. This means, if you want to convert $10,000 from your IRA, but you also owe an $8,000 RMD for the year, you need to take the full $8,000 out before you do a conversion.
Full article on Forbes
For a comprehensive review of your personal situation, always consult with a tax or legal advisor. Neither Cetera Advisor Networks LLC nor any of its representatives may give legal or tax advice."
"Distributions from traditional IRAs and employer sponsored retirement plans are taxed as ordinary income and, if taken prior to reaching age 59½, may be subject to an additional 10% IRS tax penalty. Converting from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA is a taxable event. A Roth IRA offers tax free withdrawals on taxable contributions. To qualify for the tax-free and penalty-free withdrawal of earnings, a Roth IRA must be in place for at least five tax years, and the distribution must take place after age 59½ or due to death, disability, or a first time home purchase (up to a $10,000 lifetime maximum). Depending on state law, Roth IRA distributions may be subject to state taxes.
[post_title] => 3 Roth Conversion Traps To Avoid After The SECURE Act
[post_excerpt] => Roth conversions can be a powerful tax and retirement planning technique. The idea behind most Roth conversions is to take money from an IRA and convert it to a Roth IRA. Essentially, you’re paying taxes today instead of paying taxes in the future.
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[post_date] => 2022-05-26 08:18:44
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[post_content] => By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions
Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion for photography and spending time with her son and her grandkids.
The pandemic changed everything. Her son contracted COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic. His health deteriorated quickly and he died at only 35 years old. He didn’t have life insurance. A gig worker without a 401(k), he had very minimal retirement savings.
Rose’s grandchildren, ages 2 and 6, joined the more than 140,000 U.S. children under the age of 18 who lost their primary or secondary caregiver due to the pandemic from April 2020 through June 2021. That’s approximately one out of every 450 children under age 18 in the United States.
Rose’s ex-daughter-in-law battles drug addiction and had lost custody of the kids during the divorce, so Rose became the children’s primary caregiver. She quickly discovered that caring for young children as an older adult is more physically challenging than when she raised her son, so she made the difficult decision to leave her part-time job to have the energy to care for her active grandchildren. She wants to do everything for these kids who have lost so much — but it puts her financial security at risk.
Sadly, she is far from alone.
Read the full article
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